The likelihood of a person going out and voting correlates with income level. Wealthier people are more likely to vote. So Pepper is more certain to get his votes than Mallory is to get his from his traditional constituency, at least according to statistical probability.
The Enquirer's Gregory Korte has a map on his blog that shows turnout percentages by precinct, and it proves the above statement to have been true for the primary.
Therefore there is more reason to believe that the key for Mallory will be to get out the vote.
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