I just heard Sen. Schumer on C-SPAN speaking at a Dem press conference. He was saying that Alito's answers were unsatisfactory because they were too broad and ambiguous, even though he was asked specific questions. And Schumer said answers like "the President is never above the law" and "the President must follow the Constitution" are hardly notable-- after all, what else would a nominee say?
And then I just happened to read this prediction of how the hearings would go (after the fact):
"Ok – here’s my prediction. Alito will be asked a lot of tough questions by the Dems. He won’t respond to any of them. He’ll instead use vague language about respecting precedent and the importance of not pre-judging anything. Slimy Schumer will go on a lot of talk shows and complain. The American public will yawn. And Alito will get confirmed by a mid-60s/mid-30s count."
And that's the way it's happening. His post has some other remarks on the Alito hearings as well.
10 January 2006
Lemons Now, Lemonade Later
First of all, the hit on Carson Palmer was neither dirty nor late. It was a legit play. Until someone shows up with a video from the grassy knoll, that's how it's gonna stay.
I separate sports injuries into 3 categories: muscle, bone, and connective tissue (ligaments, tendons). The best thing to hurt is a muscle; the worst a ligament or tendon.
I've actually had the exact same injury as Palmer: torn ACL and MCL. ACL tears are the bread and butter of orthopedic surgeons ("sportsmedicine" doctors, even though half of them probably can't even throw a football; I doubt mine could). Here's what I think will happen with Carson Palmer:
First, he will get surgery to repair the knee (within the next 2 weeks, I'm guessing). They will most likely replace the torn ligaments with cadaver ligaments which will provide a matrix for the body to reconstruct new ligaments over several months.
You cannot move the leg after surgery, and it's pretty sore for the first week. His leg will be in a brace to keep it immobilized. If you keep it immobilized for too long, however, scar tissue builds up and restricts flexibility. So in the 2nd week physical therapy starts with bending and straightening the joint. The physical therapist "helps" (hurts) you by pushing down on the knee to straighten it out and pushing back on it to bend it. That's what you do over and over for the first few weeks. It's not as pleasant as an evening with Selma Hayek, but the framed newspaper story about Ron Oester on the wall will help boost Palmer's morale.
(Oester tore BOTH his ACL and PCL (A=anterior, P=posterior) in one horribly gruesome play. That was the end of Oester's baseball career and the Reds got a new 2nd baseman. Two years later, Oester was back on the team and better than before).
Palmer will keep the brace on for 4-6 weeks, which they'll continually adjust to allow for more flexibility. When he gets out of the brace, his left leg will seem freakishly thin compared to the right one. He'll spend the next 5 months regaining (and adding) leg strength.
Muscle strength in the thigh is very important following knee surgery. The quadriceps muscles stabilize the knee and mitigate joint laxity, so expect Palmer to come back stronger than before. Stronger legs make better throwers. It may seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Palmer will probably be an even better passer next year.
He won't be 100% by July, but he'll be good enough to show up at training camp and practice. I think it's quite likely that he could start the first game in September.
I also think Palmer will return with renewed resolve to play QB. As of this moment, when people think "quarterback" they think "Peyton Manning" or "Tom Brady." Palmer wants to change that. One of the things he wanted to do was win his first playoff game. He didn't get his shot, and I think he'll return with renewed resolve to get his team back there.
And he won't be the only one.
So my Bengals forecast is basically this: lemons now, lemonade later.
I separate sports injuries into 3 categories: muscle, bone, and connective tissue (ligaments, tendons). The best thing to hurt is a muscle; the worst a ligament or tendon.
I've actually had the exact same injury as Palmer: torn ACL and MCL. ACL tears are the bread and butter of orthopedic surgeons ("sportsmedicine" doctors, even though half of them probably can't even throw a football; I doubt mine could). Here's what I think will happen with Carson Palmer:
First, he will get surgery to repair the knee (within the next 2 weeks, I'm guessing). They will most likely replace the torn ligaments with cadaver ligaments which will provide a matrix for the body to reconstruct new ligaments over several months.
You cannot move the leg after surgery, and it's pretty sore for the first week. His leg will be in a brace to keep it immobilized. If you keep it immobilized for too long, however, scar tissue builds up and restricts flexibility. So in the 2nd week physical therapy starts with bending and straightening the joint. The physical therapist "helps" (hurts) you by pushing down on the knee to straighten it out and pushing back on it to bend it. That's what you do over and over for the first few weeks. It's not as pleasant as an evening with Selma Hayek, but the framed newspaper story about Ron Oester on the wall will help boost Palmer's morale.
(Oester tore BOTH his ACL and PCL (A=anterior, P=posterior) in one horribly gruesome play. That was the end of Oester's baseball career and the Reds got a new 2nd baseman. Two years later, Oester was back on the team and better than before).
Palmer will keep the brace on for 4-6 weeks, which they'll continually adjust to allow for more flexibility. When he gets out of the brace, his left leg will seem freakishly thin compared to the right one. He'll spend the next 5 months regaining (and adding) leg strength.
Muscle strength in the thigh is very important following knee surgery. The quadriceps muscles stabilize the knee and mitigate joint laxity, so expect Palmer to come back stronger than before. Stronger legs make better throwers. It may seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Palmer will probably be an even better passer next year.
He won't be 100% by July, but he'll be good enough to show up at training camp and practice. I think it's quite likely that he could start the first game in September.
I also think Palmer will return with renewed resolve to play QB. As of this moment, when people think "quarterback" they think "Peyton Manning" or "Tom Brady." Palmer wants to change that. One of the things he wanted to do was win his first playoff game. He didn't get his shot, and I think he'll return with renewed resolve to get his team back there.
And he won't be the only one.
So my Bengals forecast is basically this: lemons now, lemonade later.
08 January 2006
Two Words: O'Dell Thurman
I figure the decisive factor in today's game will be the Bengals defense. The Bengals turnover stats are so impressive that it's covered up what is essentially a subpar pass defense, as was painfully revealed a couple of weeks ago when the Bills relentlessly penetrated the zone.
The Bengals can't let that happen today. If Buffalo could do it, Pittsburgh can do it better (two of Pittsburgh's offensive coaches are in the pool for some of the open head coaching positions, so they know what they're doing. Check out this remarkable story about one of them).
And then there's Willie Parker. He's not Bettis, but he's fast and he's good. The Bengals have to hold the Pittsburgh running game or they have no chance. And that means our linebackers, especially rookie ILB O'Dell Thurman, have to step it up on coverage of Parker and TE Heath Miller, whom Roethlisberger uses very effectively for pass yardage.
It's possible that Bengals special teams could make some big plays that make the difference, but I think that could go the other way, too. So I think the Bengals fortunes basically rest on the quality of their defense.
I haven't heard one person pick the Bengals to win, but I'll go for it:
Bengals, 38-34.
(i.e. I'm basically contradicting myself and saying the offense will overcome the defense's weakness. It's wishful thinking, but it's not that unimaginable. And it let's me avoid saying "Steelers win.")
The Bengals can't let that happen today. If Buffalo could do it, Pittsburgh can do it better (two of Pittsburgh's offensive coaches are in the pool for some of the open head coaching positions, so they know what they're doing. Check out this remarkable story about one of them).
And then there's Willie Parker. He's not Bettis, but he's fast and he's good. The Bengals have to hold the Pittsburgh running game or they have no chance. And that means our linebackers, especially rookie ILB O'Dell Thurman, have to step it up on coverage of Parker and TE Heath Miller, whom Roethlisberger uses very effectively for pass yardage.
It's possible that Bengals special teams could make some big plays that make the difference, but I think that could go the other way, too. So I think the Bengals fortunes basically rest on the quality of their defense.
I haven't heard one person pick the Bengals to win, but I'll go for it:
Bengals, 38-34.
(i.e. I'm basically contradicting myself and saying the offense will overcome the defense's weakness. It's wishful thinking, but it's not that unimaginable. And it let's me avoid saying "Steelers win.")
07 January 2006
All the House Majority Leader's Men
Someone will eventually make a movie based on the corruption scandal. And by "someone" I mean Quentin Tarantino. The scandal has the key ingredients: money, gambling, power, and hubris. And if that's not enough, it's got
a mob hit and an indicted Congressman going undercover with a wire.
The storyline about politicians going undercover to help the feds isn't exactly a new thing, it seems.
Screenwriters, knock yourselves out!
a mob hit and an indicted Congressman going undercover with a wire.
The storyline about politicians going undercover to help the feds isn't exactly a new thing, it seems.
Screenwriters, knock yourselves out!
06 January 2006
More Good Advice the Democrats Will Ignore
TPM gets to the crux (via Atrios):
"To run a campaign, you need ideas the other side can't sign on to. More to the point, you need ideas they can't easily co-opt by counterproposing a watered-down version. That means you need to attack some of the substance of what K Street Republicanism has done.... After all, why is the Medicare bill so crappy? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why can't we make student loans cheaper? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why can't we secure chemical plants against terrorist attacks? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why is the tax code so full of loopholes? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists."
"To run a campaign, you need ideas the other side can't sign on to. More to the point, you need ideas they can't easily co-opt by counterproposing a watered-down version. That means you need to attack some of the substance of what K Street Republicanism has done.... After all, why is the Medicare bill so crappy? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why can't we make student loans cheaper? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why can't we secure chemical plants against terrorist attacks? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists. Why is the tax code so full of loopholes? Because the GOP is run by lobbyists."
Another Glutton for Punishment Enters OH-2
Conservative Democrat Jeff Sinnard has officially announed his entry into the OH-2 primary.
A few lines from his statement:
"It is time to take back our country from the special interests and lobbyists. It is time to end politics as usual and restore faith in our government. We need much more than new faces. We need dramatically different ways of doing the peoples’ business."
"U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis said, 'A little sunlight is the best disinfectant.'"
I take these lines to be references to Congressional corruption, and I think it's good that Sinnard included them. I can't vote in OH-2, but if I could, I would look for a candidate who acknowledges the severity of the problem and prioritizes lobbying reform and campaign finance reform.
A few lines from his statement:
"It is time to take back our country from the special interests and lobbyists. It is time to end politics as usual and restore faith in our government. We need much more than new faces. We need dramatically different ways of doing the peoples’ business."
"U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis said, 'A little sunlight is the best disinfectant.'"
I take these lines to be references to Congressional corruption, and I think it's good that Sinnard included them. I can't vote in OH-2, but if I could, I would look for a candidate who acknowledges the severity of the problem and prioritizes lobbying reform and campaign finance reform.
05 January 2006
Bob Ney Makes an Empty Gesture
I saw two great rows last night: the Orange Bowl and the Abramoff hearings. More on the football later.
The hearings, which will probably be broadcast and re-broadcast at different times, are worth hearing (check C-SPAN's schedule). Last night they showed McCain grilling Abramoff associate, Italia Federici, who ran the Council for Republican Environmental Advocacy ("Help build on our Republican tradition of conservation").
I know what you're thinking: Republican? Environment? What are those two words doing in the same sentence? Why is Federici a persona non grata to the Senate committee? The High Country News has a good background.
Bob Ney is up the creek. There is a record of quid pro quo between Ney and Abramoff, and the outlook is bleak for both. NPR reported this morning that Ohio Democrats are calling for Ney to resign (not sure how that would help the Dems, but whatever). Ney recently transferred some of his Abramoff money to a good cause, but it's such an empty, transparently self-serving gesture (and a pretty small one, at that) that I can't imagine it would help at all. It reminds me of the phrase "meets minimum requirements."
The hearings, which will probably be broadcast and re-broadcast at different times, are worth hearing (check C-SPAN's schedule). Last night they showed McCain grilling Abramoff associate, Italia Federici, who ran the Council for Republican Environmental Advocacy ("Help build on our Republican tradition of conservation").
I know what you're thinking: Republican? Environment? What are those two words doing in the same sentence? Why is Federici a persona non grata to the Senate committee? The High Country News has a good background.
Bob Ney is up the creek. There is a record of quid pro quo between Ney and Abramoff, and the outlook is bleak for both. NPR reported this morning that Ohio Democrats are calling for Ney to resign (not sure how that would help the Dems, but whatever). Ney recently transferred some of his Abramoff money to a good cause, but it's such an empty, transparently self-serving gesture (and a pretty small one, at that) that I can't imagine it would help at all. It reminds me of the phrase "meets minimum requirements."
03 January 2006
Democracy Has Better Chance Without Bob Ney
The Abramoff case is moving forward, and it appears that Ohio Republican Bob Ney will be one of the first to pay the price for being corrupt.
Some may recall Ney's churlish refusal to take the issue of election security seriously. Despite plentiful evidence of problems with electronic voting machines, Ney adopted what turned out to be the GOP party line, which was that voting machines were fine and the only people complaining were liberals because they were still sore about losing in 2000.
The reason why Ney is important to the issue of election security is that he chaired the committee which indefinitely tabled an election security bill. The bill addressed matters of technology and security and was not a partisan ploy. Nevertheless, the GOP pursued standard operating procedure in making bad policy (or, in this case, avoiding good policy) and shielding themselves with the usual "The liberals are coming! The liberals are coming!" noise machine.
Bob Ney is a corrupt official in a party laden with corrupt officials. The party has vigorously opposed election security measures despite widespread evidence of the potential for fraud and error. It's hard to believe this is coincidence, unless you believe people are corrupt in only one way and not in others. But that's not human nature. Human nature is this: people will do what they can get away with.
People can get away with buying the Presidency, so they did it. People can get away with buying legislation, so they do it. People can get away with buying judges, so they do that, too. If it is possible for people to get away with buying elections, who is foolish enough to say they would not do it?
Special interests have the money and the motive. Bob Ney and the GOP want to give them the opportunity.
Some may recall Ney's churlish refusal to take the issue of election security seriously. Despite plentiful evidence of problems with electronic voting machines, Ney adopted what turned out to be the GOP party line, which was that voting machines were fine and the only people complaining were liberals because they were still sore about losing in 2000.
The reason why Ney is important to the issue of election security is that he chaired the committee which indefinitely tabled an election security bill. The bill addressed matters of technology and security and was not a partisan ploy. Nevertheless, the GOP pursued standard operating procedure in making bad policy (or, in this case, avoiding good policy) and shielding themselves with the usual "The liberals are coming! The liberals are coming!" noise machine.
Bob Ney is a corrupt official in a party laden with corrupt officials. The party has vigorously opposed election security measures despite widespread evidence of the potential for fraud and error. It's hard to believe this is coincidence, unless you believe people are corrupt in only one way and not in others. But that's not human nature. Human nature is this: people will do what they can get away with.
People can get away with buying the Presidency, so they did it. People can get away with buying legislation, so they do it. People can get away with buying judges, so they do that, too. If it is possible for people to get away with buying elections, who is foolish enough to say they would not do it?
Special interests have the money and the motive. Bob Ney and the GOP want to give them the opportunity.
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